Some quick thoughts on the election results. I really should be doing my tax declaration, but I am looking for anything to do to put that off.
Gnadenschuss: after eleven years in government, it is no surprise the SPD loses so much. It doesn’t seem a case of voting the SPD out, but SPD voters not going to vote at all. And why should they? The only way for it to remain in power would be in the unhappy liasion with the CDU. Now it can sort itself out in opposition, find its social democratic soul again, and after 4 years of painful budget cuts and tax hikes under Schwarz-Gelb return in a Rot-Rot-Grüne coalition with the Left Party and the Greens.
Schwarz-Gelb: will be very lucky to last for longer than four years. Apart from the ballooning debt which will not leave it much room to manouvre Germany has not suddenly rediscovered its petit-bourgois self again. It remains at heart a social democratic country. As soon as the SPD can inspire its large contingent of abstaining core voters to bother showing up at the ballot box the social democratic equilibrium will be restored again. At present these voters are stuck between their own distaste for the Left Party and the lack of realistic coalition possibilities. Meanwhile, the CDU will function as a social brake on the more gung-ho liberalisers in the FDP. Contrary to current perceptions on the left, last night’s election results are not the harbringers of a Reaganite apocalypse.
Progressive: Anyone notice that Germany will now be reigned by a female chancellor and an openly gay vice-chancellor? And it’s not even an issue.
Greens: seem destined to lose this game of musical chairs, despite – or because of – winning most of the arguments re environmentalism, nuclear energy, climate change and the economy. If they are lucky – and Germany isn’t – the next government will reverse most of the environmental policies of the last decade, extend nuclear power station leases, ignore climate change, cut renewable energy subsidies und und und. Then they might hang on to their raison d’etre. If not, they will have to come up with a new one soon.
Flat-tax: please. Now. I really can’t be bothered with my tax declaration this year.
